Half way through the season, Boxing Day truly is a pivotal point of most EPL campaigns. Man United often mounts a run at this stage of the season while others have a history of saging badly. The flurry of games centered around the holiday season is a tradition regardless of the loud protests from managers such as Wenger. You’d think he’d know better after all his years at Arsenal but he puts out the same diatribe every year just ahead of the crunch. It has to be said there is a good deal of logic and common sense in his message but he surely must know that it falls on deaf ears at the FA and wins him few fans.
That said, the weekend’s biggest event and what could become the most significant match of the round actually doesn’t happen on Boxing Day. It’s on Sunday, when Wenger’s Arsenal welcomes Aston Villa to the Emirates. This one should be a dandy. A contrast here is the depth and quality of the Gunners even in their youngsters, and the relative small squad and lack of depth of Villa.
Does Villa have enough to stay among the top five or finish even higher in a Champions League place? In the winter window last year they made a move and signed the oft injured and unavailable Emile Heskey. That move proved ineffective as they tumbled down the table to end it in 6th for the second season in a row. Little has changed with Heskey unavailable more often than not as if to emphasize the real weakness of Villa. With the clubs tied on points (35) 3rd, and perhaps 2nd in the table could go to the team that gets the result.
While those two are competing at the Emirates Man United will be at the KC Stadium against Hull who would like nothing more than kicking some sand in the face of the champions. Note that United more often than not wins more points during the crunch than their competition. Will this season be different in that regard? It is not likely given the fact that United have already lost 5 on the season.
On Boxing Day itself a lot of interest will be focused on Wolves and their visit to Anfield. While a result here won’t impact the top of the table it will set the stage for the rest of the season for both sides. Wolves, on a good run with 3 victories from their last 4 including a 1-0 win at Spurs would do themselves a great deal of good with another victory on the road. Speaking of that, it might also work well for The Reds as it would be almost certain that it would send Rafa packing. For many fans of the Reds that would be a good thing; a very good thing.
Speaking of Rafa, the Reds are in such dire straights that he has let it be known that they will try to limp along with the injury to Torres and he will not sit out for what apparently is a needed surgery. Spain is not happy as they see the danger to their mission at the World Cup this summer in jeopardy if Torres isn’t able to regain full fitness. And while he has been playing for Liverpool lately he has not been effective.
Neither has Gerrard for that matter. And since Liverpool are so heavily dependent on those two players their season of promise is on the verge of disaster. A win by Wolves would push them over the edge.
The league’s in form club, Birmingham will entertain leaders Chelsea and speaking of surprises, Spurs will travel the short distance to West London to visit Fulham at the Cottage for yet another London Derby. The most entertaining and competitive match of the round could come from either of these Boxing Day treats.
Roberto Mancini’s first match in charge at Man City will be watched closely and with Stoke visiting Eastlands they could ruin the party. The problem is, Stoke is the lowest scoring team in the league so they shouldn’t be a big challenge for City’s porous defense. The question ahead of this match for many is will this be the one where we see City produce that sort of complete game we’ve all been expecting them to deliver. City’s true weakness so far has been their defense that has seen them concede 27 goals. Only one team in the top ten (10th placed Sunderland) has conceded more (28) at this stage of the season.
Along with that their offensive production hasn’t really been what many expected either. Both Robinho and Adebayor have had fitness issues that has limited their production too. With the top heavy offensive power of their roster most fans expected City to overwhelm the league opposition. It hasn’t happened. Regardless of the deep pockets of the ownership group and how many stars that fill the roster you can only play 11 at a time.
So the question becomes can Mancini get that promise out of these guys or not? He may not have long to produce the answer. The owners dismissed Mark Hughes despite them having the fewest losses in the league (2) and holding 6th in the table. Does Stoke provide the launching pad for City and their new boss? That is really the important question behind all the others being asked at Eastlands.
Liverpool had a tough slogg at Anfield in a stalemate and lackluster opening period despite the most attack minded 11 they could field (supposedly). Torres is still off his game and the Reds had a difficult time creating any clear scoring opportunities. It was there for all to see that this Liverpool side would need an injection of spirit and confidence and perhaps an extra man or two to defeat Wolves on this Boxing Day.
They would get just that when Wolves were reduced to 10 men in the 53rd when defender Ward was sent off for his second yellow. Less than 10 minutes later Gerrard headed home an Insua cross for the lead and Benayoun’s drive took a cruel deflection off Henry for the 2-0 win. The Reds got the much needed win but it truly was a gift. Rafa’s latest aquisition, the $32 million dollar man Aquilani got his first start and made no positive impact. Frankly, he was awful and only emphasized Rafa’s lack of judgement of the talent level required to prosper in the EPL.
In the battle of the Blues Chelsea were held at St Andrews in a 0-0 draw and extended their dip in form with only 1 victory in their last 5. With Chelsea stalled Ancellotti now faces an extended period where he will be missing as many as 5 of his top choice players including Drogba and Essien for the African Cup of Nations.
Fulham held Tottenham to the same 0-0 scoreline at Craven Cottage stopping Spurs advance on a heavy pitch where neither side really found their legs. Or was this a result of Spurs little side trip to Dublin?
West Ham rallied from their recent run with a 2-0 victory over Pompey on a Diamanti penalty (23) and a late strike from Kovac (89) to stifle Portsmouth’s bid to escape the relegation zone. The win lifts the Hammers out of the zone.
After three shouts for penalty awards Man City scored their first goal under Mancini in the 28th with an overwhelming rush into the area as Petrov finished off the pass from Tevez. Tevez would add a goal of his own on a spectacular strike just ahead of the break for a 2-0 lead and a win for Mancini in his first match in charge and City’s 2nd win in a row.
Burnley got the leveler from on loan David Nugent (56) after Bolton had taken the lead on a Matt Taylor free kick (29) and a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor.
Sunderland’s Darren Bent notched his 11th of the season but the Black Cats couldn’t hold on and a late goal from Fellanini rescued a point for Everton in a 1-1 draw. This match marks the third time this season that Steve Bruce’s side have dropped points from a winning position with less than five minutes remaining. Talk about frustrating.
Blackburn’s Benni McCarthy finally opened his account for the season (30) but Wigan’s Rodallega leveled (53) for the Latics and yet another 1-1 draw.
There would be no draw between Arsenal & Aston Villa. Actually, it looked as if it might end the way it started, 0-0. That is until Cesc Fabregas came on in the 58th minute and turned the game. In the 65th a brilliant free kick made it 1-0 Gunners and with Villa pressing all hands on deck trying to get back to level a marvelously executed counter attack. A terrific ball from Walcott put the ball on the foot of Fabregas and he was in alone on Friedel. The clinical finish settled the issue at 2-0 on the brace from Fabregas who limped off in the 83rd minute. He’d done his job and won the match but Diaby would add another on the cusp of injury time for the final score. Villa again exposed with their weakness and lack of quality and depth.
Villa has some terrific players for sure. Just not enough of them that step up and make a positive impact as often as you’d like and they are too dependent on forwards that carry injury along with their big salary. One of them, Heskey, did well for awhile but couldn’t last as he was pulled off for Carew just after the opening goal. I have said this before; any team that depends on Heskey is doomed to failure to achieve their goals and his history since leaving Liverpool shows just that. One or the other of them will surely not be available for Villa’s next game either as it is rare that either one of them can manage to make an appearance in consecutive games. Heskey’s inability to maintain match fitness is nearly as legendary as Ledley King of Spurs. And therein lies the root of the problems for Aston Villa’s Martin O’Neill.
Hull did well holding their own in the opening half despite a fistful of chances for Man United until stoppage time when Rooney knocked home a deflected ball from in close for the lead. Hull leveled on a converted penalty () that resulted from a wayward pass by Rooney and foul on Altidore by Rafael. Rooney made amends but got no credit for the goal (OG charged to Dawson) and then created another with a seeing eye pass for Berbatov to tap in (82) for the 1-3 final score that sends United back to 2nd just 2 points behind Chelsea. The energetic Rooney had quite a day as he played a key role in all four goals scored; scored the opener; his wayward pass created the leveler for Hull; his driven ball across the face of goal intended for Park created Dawson’s OG and his precise pass created Berbatov’s tap in.
The holiday period crunch continues on Monday with two London Derby’s on tap as The Hammers visit Spurs and Fulham travels across London to Stamford Bridge. Another neighborhood war is on the schedule in the northwest as Everton makes the short trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley.
And it doesn’t stop there as Tuesday has one of those that neutrals will be keeping a close eye on too as the Reds travel to Villa Park for another test of their skill and will. One question the cramped schedule presents, as Wenger illuminated just last week, is who is being tested here? Villa will face Liverpool at home after having travelled to face the Gunners on Sunday. It really is crunchtime. The fans love it, but it really is a big test for the players not to mention the logistics planners that make it all work.
With half the season now in the history books this 2009/10 campaign is shaping up as the most competitive we have seen in many years. And that close competition is both at the top and the bottom of the table with less than 5 points separating the top 5 and the same margin across the bottom 7 with only 2 points the margin between six of those seven clubs.
Chelsea faces an extended period without the services of Drogba, Essien, Kalou, Bosingwa and Mikel and the schedule seems to favor 2nd place Man United with “easier” games over the same period (if there is such a thing this time around in the EPL). It appears a safe bet at this stage that the champion will have the smallest of margins in May and the total point haul will fall in the range of the low to mid 80’s for the winning side. The top two will be close (Chelsea and Arsenal) and will separate themselves by a slightly larger margin between them and the 3rd place finisher (United).
Look for Villa to fade and expect both Spurs and Man City to finish above Liverpool as the two teams from Manchester occupy 3rd and 4th in the table. Look for the Reds season of despair to end with them in a battle for 6th with the Villains. The really good news for Reds fans with that finish will be the end of Rafa Benitez (finally) and yet another new ownership team to promise revitalising the storied old club.
Fans, strap yourselves in for a terrific and entertaining ride; the most thrilling and closest campaign in the EPL in recent memory.
