Observations: Big Freeze hits England hard
by Paul O'Donnell
The cold and snow in the northwest caused the Carling Cup semi's 1st leg scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday to be postponed but the snow didn't stop the match at Stoke.  Fulham boss Roy Hodgson thought it should have.  In the end he lost more than just the points in the wind and snow.

Bobby Zamora was lost to injury early in the 2nd half and his sub, Clint Dempsey, very nearly turned the game for the Cottagers.  The Potters, who totally dominated the opening half, built a 3-0 lead and looked ready to complete the drubbing.  As often happens, the two halves were quite different games and Fulham's rally came close to winning a point.  Dempsey, with good hold up play at the top of the area, and his layoff found Duff whose shot deflected off Shawcross to pull one back for Fulham (61).

The Cottagers controlled the game at that stage and pressed for another but it wouldn't come until Dempsey's stunning drive from about 35 yards in the 85th.  The home side held on through a twitchy 5 minutes of added time for the 3-2 win, Stoke's first in six and their first multi-goal game in ages.  Ahead of this game Stoke was the league's lowest scoring side (only 15 goals in 19 games).  Fulham boss Roy Hodgson is bemoaning the cost of the game, losing both Zamora and Hangeland to injury as well as the match.  Zamora's injury (shoulder) could have him on the sideline for up to 8 weeks.

Arsenal lost their chance to cash in their game in hand to the weather where a victory over Bolton would have seen them take second ahead of the weekend.  With the manager spot at Bolton still not settled Owen Coyle of Burnley is poised to make the jump from Turf Moor.  Why in the world would he do this?  The question is moot as Coyle becomes the new man in charge at the Reebok.

Speaking of gambles quite a few of them are rumored to be in the mix during the winter window.  Considering that many of them prove to be little more than conjecture on the part of the chattering class and bloggers I generally don't pay much attention to all the hype and wild claims.  However, when big names are involved it is almost too difficult to avoid trying to make sense of it all.

One that has me fascinated is Patrick Vieira.  He says he'd like to make a move from Inter because he can't get the playing time that might earn him a serious look for France's World Cup squad.  For me however, the question becomes why in the world would Man City bring him into the fold?  The club is already heavy in midfielders, many of them among the world's best.  Already, the club's motor of the past few seasons, Steven Ireland, hasn't been able to keep his spot in the first 11 and the club's record signing, Robinho has played so little of late he has lost his edge.  Adding Vieira to the mix would only seem to add to player selection issues that often result in players looking elsewhere, just as Vieira is doing now.  Since he can't earn playing time at Inter, how in the world would he ever be in the mix at City?  Plus, he would be leaving a club well on their way to yet another title in Italy and that has earned a spot in this season's Champions League last 16 and is sure to be in that field next year as well.  None of that applies to City, at least as of now.  It just doesn't make a lot of sense.  Add to that that the real need at Man City seems to be more quality defenders not another midfielder.

Apparently Mancini thinks otherwise and has signed Vieira for City.  Perhaps he believes having Vieira as the holding midfielder will help City's really porous defense and plug a hole that has seen them concede far too many goals.  That must be his thinking because at this stage of the season City has allowed more goals than any other team currently in the top ten (27).  That is City's weakness and should be his top priority.  Signing Vieira for any other reason is simply misguided and not directly addressing the part of the club's performance that has been lacking so far.

Along with that defensive record City have not produced the goals expected of their star studded lineup.  City, currently 5th in the table, have scored fewer goals than all the teams above them while also conceding more often as well.  However on their recent run of victories under Mancini they have improved on both counts which suggests that they may have turned a corner.  The play of Tevez and Bellamy in recent matches has been impressive which results in them threatening the other guys taking the pressure off their own defense too.  At any rate, what does Vieira really add to the mix for City?

Another is the strange dilemma of Sol Campbell.  Left unsigned by Pompey in the summer, then his aborted and startling move to League Two Notts County now his him unattached, which makes him an attractive property, or so you'd think.  Months ago I mentioned that during this very window we might see Campbell heading for Spurs and his former boss at Portsmouth, Harry Redknapp.  So far that hasn't happened, but it would be a whirlwind for the sports pundit community considering his illustrious career at Spurs arch enemy, Arsenal.  Could you imagine what the lords of the printed page in England would drum up over such a move?  It would be fun to watch.  But, now Campbell says he'd be open to a return engagement with the Gunners, which tells me his agent hasn't been able to turn up any real interest so far.  Keep an eye on this because it is likely he'll sign on somewhere in the EPL before the window closes.  It would actually be a big surprise if he didn't.

And for pete's sake how about Van Nistleroy going to Liverpool?  Is that one just pure rumor or is it real?  Frankly, with his scoring prowess (he is a poacher of the first order) he could become Rafa's savior.  When you consider all the high value, big name strikers (Morientes, Bellamy, Cisse, Crouch, Keane et al) that Rafa has had in his squad, for the team to now be almost totally dependent on just two players for goals Benitez is clearly in need of finding someone to bail him out of his self made purgatory.  So I'm inclined to think there may be some truth to this possibility.  Or is that my own hope for a true revival for The Reds?  You have to wonder with Liverpool's often cited poor financial position considered if they actually could afford this guy's high wages and the fee?  They could get a boost in that regard with the apparent bid by Birmingham City for Ryan Babel.

And if there is any truth to Liverpool's interest in Van Nistleroy Stoke City has made a bid for his services.  The Dutchman would certainly go a long way to resolving the Potters difficulty in front of goal.

Speaking of the money side of it all Benitez has just managed to get rid of a few of his biggest mistakes in the transfer market: Andrea Dossena and Voronin.  Rafa praised Dossena in signing this mutt for over $10M and the clown managed only 13 appearances for Liverpool in 18 months.  Also on the move is Voronin who is on his way to Moscow (Dynamo).  Both represent net losses in monetary terms along with very little postitive impact on the pitch.

Benitez screams regularly in the press about the lack of support while his record is replete with his sqandering large sums of money over the past five years.  Rafa's whining about this in the press has most Liverpool fans convinced that the owners have held back on the spending while the truth is quite the opposite.  Liverpool has spent more in the transfer market than Man United, Arsenal or Chelsea over the last three years.  That spending has simply been squandered by the poor returns on the 'investments' Rafa has decided to make.

As if to emphasize the mounting pressure at Liverpool fans have caused a fury over a Hicks Jr. email and even more significant is that Rafa has stated clearly that if the club fails to earn a Champions League qualifying place it is more than likely that they would be forced to sell Fernando Torres.  And get this, that might also mean Steven Gerrard would be on the selling block too.

Do you remember what happened to Leeds?  As that clubs grip on the top 5 started to wane and the financial pressures mounted the very first sign of the desperation in the boardroom was their sale of  Ferdinand to arch rival Man United.  Oh, they survived that at first, but the warning flag it represented was very real indeed.  Leeds tumbled down the table and were soon relegated, fell all the way down to League One and five years later they're still there.

Not to say that Liverpool are on their way down, but stranger things have happened.  The comparison with Leeds is noteworthy for this reason: it illustrates just how important the Champions League is to the financial success of a club.  The revenue earned from that status soon becomes one that the boardroom depends upon.  In the case of Leeds, they actually borrowed a huge sum of money backed in large part by their expected earnings from that source.  After all, the board said the club had finished in the top 5 season after season and they simply gambled that that would continue.  When the club failed to earn that status on the pitch one source of the revenue to repay that short term loan was suddenly gone and they were in big trouble.  That, in essence, was a part of what led to their demise and the fire sale of players.  The first signal of the impending doom was that sale of Ferdinand; the club needed the profit from the then world record fee for the top rated central defender.  What looked like a good business decision turned sour and the club and fans are still suffering from it.

So why am I so interested in seeing Liverpool succeed?  Simple really.  It is nearly 20 years now since they last won a league title.  Plus, since the inception of the EPL they've rarely been close with last season's finish just 4 points down to the winners being their best.  In all the EPL seasons so far only 4 clubs have actually won it (Man United, Blackburn, Arsenal and of course Chelsea).  I'd like to see someone other than one of those clubs win it for a change.  I honestly think it would be good for the league and the game to end the domination of those few teams.  Far too many clubs in the league that is supposed to be the world's best begin their season each year knowing they have no chance to win the league title and set their goals at something far less.  The league simply is not competitive, as history shows us, where the title is concerned.  It just isn't.  The EPL would be far more interesting if it actually was.

Over the last ten years United has won 6, Arsenal 2 and Chelsea 2 titles.  In almost every season in that run the final table has had the 4th placed side so far behind the title winner that to call them part of the Big Four is a joke.  It is little more than media hype and an attempt to pump up fan interest.  With the actual results in mind the league is really the Big Three and the rest of the pack.  Simple as that.  Truth be told the only realistic reason for referring to a mythical Big Four is that the EPL continues to earn 4 spots for the Champions League competition.  Since UEFA evaluates that posture each and every year it actually is possible that with Liverpool's early elimination this year that policy could change (possible, but not likely).

Wouldn't it be terrific if an Aston Villa, Tottenham or yes, Liverpool were to actually win the title.  Just once would be nice don't you think?

This season is building into something a bit different than we've seen lately but the real competition has four clubs in a fight for not the top spot, but 4th.  The battle for the title is really between 3 clubs (Chelsea, United and Arsenal) and they'll end up double digit points ahead of whoever winds up winning the battle for the final Champions League place (4th).  For that matter it would not be a big surprise to see the top two with a significant point advantage over whoever ends the season in 3rd.  Don't be surprised to see that 4th placed finisher 15 or more points behind the title winner.  Again the title will go to one of those Big Three.  There is no Big Four in reality as one of those 3 have won the title in every season but 1 (Blackburn, 1995/96) since the EPL was established.  The team that is supposed to be the 4th member (Liverpool) has never won it.  That says it all.  The Big Four is a media created myth, simple as that.

With the bad weather engulfing the UK the weekend matches were all in jeopardy and many were postponed due to continued heavy snow and cold.  The Round 21 schedule included some interesting games with United aiming to shake off the doldrums at Birmingham against the league's in form club while the Gunners entertaining Everton at the Emirates being the only two games of the weekend that were played.  Also in the mix are games that were put off using the conditions as an excuse to avoid other issues with the club getting the most criticism being West Ham.  Upton Park was deemed by many on the scene to have been in quite good shape and it has been charged that the game was postponed for reasons other than the cited fan safety concern.

In one of those that survived the attack of global warming Landon Donovan was in the starting 11 for Everton at the Emirates.  Snow was still swirling at kickoff of the only 3PM (England time) match to be played.  Advantage Gunners because a win here at home would put them up to 2nd in the table.  A Donovan corner in the 12th minute headed home by Osman opened the scoring for the Toffees as they managed to hold the upper hand in the early going.  The Gunners leveled on a Denilson drive that took a wicked deflection off Osman wrong-footing Howard as the swirling snow got heavier.  As full time came within reach the snow slacked off a bit with Everton under intense pressure but it was a brilliant through ball from Cahill that put Pienaar in alone in the 82nd minute and his classy finish that looked to have won the day for the Toffees.  Two minutes into stoppage time a sliding attempt to block the shot of Rosicky by Lucas Neil ended up deflecting the ball up and over Howard for the 2-2 final.

Down in Birmingham Cameron Jerome scored the opener (39) in a most thrilling and entertaining match as the hosts bid to extend their unbeaten run against the champs.  And it looked for all the world that they would do just that.  A period of United dominance would lead to a controversial OG (Dann) in the 63rd and the 1-1 draw keeping Birmingham's run intact and stopping United from going top.

In the Monday evening game Man City's bid for 4th got off on track with a Tevez goal after only 7 minutes.  City added another in the 41st with a strong run from Micah Richards whose pass found Benjani.  His shot hit off the bottom of the post and charomed back across the goal into the path of Richards who deservedly banged it home for the 2-0 lead over Blackburn at the half.  Tevez added his 2nd of the match shortly after the break (48) and City were on their way up the table displacing Spurs from 4th.  Before that would be nailed down Pederson pulled one back for Rovers after a bad first touch by DeJong gifted him the ball at the edge of the area and his shot to the back post side netting eluded the diving Given.  The goal energized the Rovers and in the next few minutes they threatened to make a game of it but it wasn't to be.  Tevez completed his hat trick in stoppage time for the 4-1 victory for City.  This man's play over the last ten games makes you wonder how SAF let him go across town?

Terrible developments marred the African Nations Cup when Togo's team bus suffered a terrorist attack on Friday and three people were killed.  In the turmoil that followed the murderous attack Togo first announced their withdrawl, then the team voted unaminously to stay and then again announced they would exit the competition and go home.  Now with reports claiming they vowed to return for their match on Tuesday the officials have expelled them from the competition in hopes of avoiding any further turmoil.

Not the sort of thing the world of soccer needs especially in a year when an African nation is hosting the World Cup on the continent for the very first time.