While I usually do not pay much attention to all the transfer hype ahead of the season this year has been a bit different. Did you feel like a child’s yo-yo following the media announcements regarding Martin Jol and the manager job at Fulham? I did and I felt stupid for paying attention even if it was announced as a done deal at ESPNsoccernet. Or how about the campaign of Barca’s players and fans trying to pry Cesc from Arsenal? Is a contract really a contract anymore?
Transactions that have occurred and several still pending, and the impact on the season outcome for several clubs really does hang in the balance. Will Cesc really go back to Spain? That one, if it does happen, will certainly change my selection of Arsenal to win the league this season. Yes, it is that big, and largely because the Gunners also lost Eduardo to Shaktar Donestk and are still searching for the big wheel up top to replace Adebayor.
At Man City the spending continues (approaching 80M pounds with a month to go to the close of the transfer window) and now they face the prospect of shedding some players that could make a real difference elsewhere. Bellamy, Santa Cruz, Stephen Ireland and more are likely to be deemed excess baggage before the deadline and the rumour mill also says Robbie Keane is being shopped around by Harry. The leadership at White Hart Lane knows a good bet as they made millions last year selling Keane to Liverpool then buying him back for about half the money just six months later pocketing a handsome profit. Now they look to do it again apparently. What’s that old adage about the gift that keeps on giving?
Nearly as big is the on again, off again move of Fernando Torres. If the Reds do lose this guy they will almost certainly not achieve their goal of getting back into the Big Four. Suffering from all the money squandered by Rafa over the years Hodgson has little available to resurrect the club’s stature. Can Ngog or the supposed want-away Ryan Babel produce the goods if Torres moves? Not likely. To add more to the already full plate for Hodgson a hostile takeover of the club is in progress as well. Bad timing as the uncertainty grows in intensity just ahead of the opening of the season.
The Torres move, if it does happen, will probably allow him to spend to try to fill the hole, but the way it looks there may not be enough time to do a deal before the window closes. That could be Torres’ final gesture to Liverpool if he does such a thing, but it sure looks as if that could happen. If it does play out that way the first half of the season for the Reds could be an even bigger disaster than last year if you can imagine that.
Liverpool fans won’t want to recall this but to set the record straight they were out of contention in the league, out of the FA Cup, out of the League Cup and bounced out of the Champions League all before Boxing Day. Most fans would say it couldn’t get any worse but the loss of Torres would mean it surely won’t be much better either. Really makes you wonder why the reigning CL winners Inter would bring the guy that produced such a disaster at Liverpool (Rafa) in to manage their club doesn’t it? As a Liverpool fan I was convinced long ago that Rafa was a clown. Watch what happens now at Inter for further proof.
Steven Gerrard’s production was poor last season (9 league goals) and Hodgson can only hope that gets much better this time around. Joe Cole will score more frequently than the man he has replaced (Benayoun) but his outspoken nature could turn out to be a net negative for the club. Cole will be looking to improve his status as a bit part player for both Chelsea and England and Liverpool fans expect big contributions from him as well.
The legacy of spectacular failures by Rafa in the transfer market (Keane, Crouch, Baros, Cisse, Morientes, Dossena, Bellamy, Riera, etc) put even more pressure on Cole to succeed. Hodgson is also saddled by one of Rafa’s biggest gambles and can only hope he can get more from Aguilani so he doesn’t turn into another gigantic loss for the club. Despite the poor return on the “investments” made by Benitez in the transfer market he benefitted by the fan anger directed at the hated American owners. Hodgson may also be about to lose that foil with the potential takeover that is reported to be in the works. The loss of Torres would be an incredibly bad start for Hodgson whether the ownership changes or not.
One player that will draw a lot of attention is Jermaine Beckford who moved from Leeds to Everton. The young man could be a big surprise this season and launch Liverpool’s neighbors across Stanley Park into a real challenge for a CL place. Will Beckford’s move turn out to be the newest “diamond in the rough” for David Moyes? Or will SAF’s acquisition of the Mexican star Hernandez be the real coup of the transfer season? SAF thinks so and has been quoted as saying the guy could be another Rooney.
Will the deep pockets of Man City make the difference or will their embarrassment of riches be a boon for some other clubs as they now look to trim down their roster of stars? With their spending such huge amounts making the other clubs seem like pikers in that regard there seems to be little concern for real value or what that really is anymore. Makes me think of a different kind of transfer season and a different sort of player too. One that has never actually realized the kind of accolades he deserves.
While his value in the transfer market is long since passed there is one guy whose career illustrates a true bargain in that respect: Kevin Phillips. Good grief you say? Here’s why I say that: his career has established what is surely the very best return on investment than any man in the league’s history, certainly over the last 15 years. The manager’s of today can only dream of finding a player of such value.
Over his entire career club’s have paid transfer fee’s of just under 6 million pounds. Not on one move mind you, that is the total over his entire career. That money has been good for a total of 222 league goals and one of the very best strike rates of any player over that same span of time. Over his pro career Phillips has a strike rate of .47, which means he scores a goal almost every other time he makes an appearance, and that is over 15 years.
To illustrate the value, Sunderland paid only 325,000 pounds for him in 1997 to pry him away from Watford. Over the next six seasons he scored 115 goals in 209 league appearances for the highest strike rate in the EPL (.55). The Black Cats then sold him to Southampton for ten times the amount they paid for him if you can imagine that return on investment. Startling to be sure in comparison to the amount of money they throw around today for far less value, but there it is.
Compare that to the tens of millions wasted by Rafa on such players as Alberto Riera or even more ludicrous Aguilani and you get the idea. Rafa paid over $12 million for Riera and had to essentially give him away to get out from under taking a huge loss in the process. Liverpool are set for an even bigger loss on Aguilani who Rafa spent over $32 million on last year when the guy wasn’t even fit enough to play for months and made only 9 appearances in the league scoring once. The loss to Liverpool will be truly staggering if they don’t get more from him this season that is for certain. Add to that the loss of nearly $10 million on the ill fated transfer of Robbie Keane and the really big money Rafa squandered is apparent.
The real truth is no player has produced such value over time as Kevin Phillips with the possible exception of Terri Henri and his spectacular seasons at Arsenal. Even with his success at Man United Wayne Rooney doesn’t even come close since they paid such a big sum for him to snatch him away from Everton (20 million pounds or $32M). Even with Rooney’s spectacular goal scoring record last year his strike rate is only .41 over his career. Among the best to be sure but still not up to the rate Phillips has managed over a much longer career all while surrounded by far less quality in terms of his supporting cast. Here’s another comparison with a big name player, Steven Gerrard, who is a fan favorite and one of the most celebrated English players over the last decade. Gerrard, while not a true striker of course, has only managed a .21 strike rate in league action over his career (a goal every 5 games).
To illustrate the difference if we reduce the comparison to the cost in dollars per goal based on the transfer fee, which may be absurd, but so is the fundamental result. Like it or not soccer fans the guys that pay the bills will see it as an expression of the true value returned for their investment. Rooney has cost Man United over $351,000 per league goal ($32M transfer fee for 91 league goals) while Phillips has cost his clubs only $27,000 in terms of transfer cost per league goal scored (no consideration given to salary which actually would make the comparison of cost per goal even more startling since Phillips has never earned anything near the weekly salary of a Wayne Rooney or Steven Gerrard).
Kevin Phillips, over his lengthy career has returned the very best value and made himself a real bargain. At this point he is preparing for yet another season at Birmingham City and the fans there appreciate those big goals he scored last season while coming off the bench. Just ask his boss Steve Bruce. Birmingham finished a surprising 9th last season after earning promotion from exile and Phillips played a key part in that success. Phillips scored the match winning goal in consecutive games leading City to their surprising top ten finish. Can he do it again (he’s now 38)?
The story of the career of Kevin Phillips has many twists and turns and one of the most bizarre among them has to be his final season at Southampton under the tutelage (if you can call it that) of Harry Redknapp. Redknapp’s recent success at Tottenham has led many fans of the EPL to forget the damage done by his tenure at both southcoast clubs (Portsmouth and Southampton). Remember the crazy swapping of manager roles engineered by Harry? He left one club only to manage the other to relegation (Southampton) then returned to his former club Pompey and set them on the path to relegation and financial disaster too. Phillips, at the time, was a key, some would say the key to Southampton. Redknapp managed to win only once in his final 8 games at the end of his final season there that sent them down. An injury to Phillips along with his age was thought to be the end of his career as well. It wouldn’t work out that way.
Phillips spent an injury plagued and for him unproductive season at Villa (4 goals) after they rescued him from Southampton. Villa then sold him to perennial up and down club West Brom for a measely 700,000 pounds which for the Baggies would turn out to be the best money they ever spent as he scored 38 goals for them in two seasons leading them to promotion yet again. Phillips wouldn’t go up with them as the Baggies wouldn’t resign him after his 23 goal season got them promoted. He moved to Birmingham on a free transfer instead helping them earn promotion back to the EPL too with his 18 goals including the game winners he produced last season that kept them in the top ten.
Kevin Phillips deserves to be more widely recognized for his success. Certainly many big money folks in the board rooms owe him a lot more than just a tip of the hat. Very few players have produced such value over the years as Kevin Phillips. For that matter most of them don’t come close. Bottom line, there are dozens of others in the EPL that seem to think they deserve even more and few of them come close to the record and value established by Kevin Phillips over his career.
Manager’s can only dream of finding a return on their investment represented by the career of Kevin Phillips. Some will spend their club into oblivion trying to find it and in the craziness of the fan base are criticized if they don’t. At this summer’s World Cup we saw how silly that approach can be as the last three Player’s of the Year (Kaka, Ronaldo and Messi) were absolute flops for their national sides.
Makes you wonder what the wizards of smart in the soccer world are really all about doesn’t it?
